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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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