🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."